Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

28%
+4% last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Sep 26The market required an official result showing Scotland as the winner of the WXV match played in Scotland on 26 September 2026. BBC Sport's live coverage of the game at the Hive Stadium in Edinburgh on 26 September 2026 reports that Australia took the victory at full time. Because Australia were recorded as the winners at the final whistle, Scotland did not score more match points, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled35%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Premise (Scottish Rugby, 24 Sep 2026): Scotland Women face Australia in their final home WXV Series match at Hive Stadium, Edinburgh on Saturday 26 September, kick-off 16:10. https://scottishrugby.org/news-and-features/scotland-women-team-to-face-australia-in-final-home-fixture-of-vodafone-scotland-wxv-series-confirmed/ → This identifies the specific match in Scotland on 26 Sep 2026 the question refers to. Conclusion: The match in question is Scotland v Australia at Hive Stadium on 2026-09-26. Premise (BBC live text for that match): “So a third successive loss in the WXV Series for Scotland as Australia take the victory in Edinburgh.” The feed also references the full-time phase (“Scotland are ready for the full-time whistle now.” / “And that will be that.”). https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/live/cm3wjyqvvnzet → If Australia “take the victory,” then at full time Australia had more points than Scotland. Institutional rule: In rugby union, the team that wins at full time has scored more match points than the opponent. → Therefore Scotland did not score more match points than Australia at the final whistle. Conclusion: NO.
Source: bbc.co.ukSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledScotland has the home advantage and a stronger squad on paper. I expect them to secure a win over Australia, especially with the momentum from recent matches.

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