Will the #1 show on Netflix get at least 15 million views?

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61%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 20This market used The Numbers' final (non‑estimate) U.S. 3‑day opening weekend total for Whalefall for October 16–18, 2026, and it resolves YES if that published total is strictly less than $8,000,000. The Numbers published a final U.S. 3‑day opening weekend total for Whalefall for October 16–18, 2026 that was strictly below $8,000,000. Because that published total is under the $8,000,000 threshold, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled61%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: The Numbers' final (non-estimate) U.S. 3-day opening weekend box office for "Whalefall" for the period 2026-10-16 – 2026-10-18 is strictly less than USD 8,000,000. The market rule additionally states it resolves identically to the mirrored Polymarket market. Observations matched (from supplied data): the mirrored Polymarket market "Will \"Whalefall\" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?" is marked resolved (event closed) with outcome prices Yes=1, No=0 → official Polymarket outcome = Yes (priced 1). Complementary Polymarket range markets (8–10m, 10–12m, 12–14m, 14–16m, at least 16m) are resolved with Yes=0, No=1, consistent with a value below $8M. Comparison: the market rule ties resolution to Polymarket and Polymarket officially resolved to Yes, which corresponds to the condition being true (opening weekend < $8,000,000). Therefore outcome = YES.
Source: clutch.vipSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current box office climate and competition, I doubt 'Whalefall' will pull in less than $8 million. It needs significant buzz to hit that target, which it likely won't.

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