Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 13The rule pays yes if Ugo Ugochukwu is officially classified first, second, or third in the final official race classification for the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid, using the final classification after any stewards' decisions as published by the FIA, Formula1.com, or major news outlets. Multiple reputable sources, including Formula1.com and major press agencies, report that Ugo Ugochukwu finished second (P2) in the season-ending FIA Formula 3 Feature Race in Madrid and that this result secured him the 2026 F3 Drivers' Championship, with no post-race steward decision altering his placing. Second place is within the top three, so the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled25%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent credible outlets in the supplied evidence report that Ugo Ugochukwu finished second in the season‑ending FIA Formula 3 Feature Race (Feature Race 2) at the Madrid Spanish Grand Prix, and that result secured him the 2026 F3 Drivers' Championship. The Formula1.com report and independent wire/press outlets (AP via ABC/US News) and GPBlog all state he finished P2; none of the supplied sources report any post‑race steward decision changing his placing. That establishes he was officially classified inside the top three (P2) on the race date below.
Source: formula1.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith the race in just over a day, Ugo Ugochukwu's chances for a podium finish seem slim based on current form. I wouldn't bet on it.

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