Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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82%
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YES if the official start list published by the race organiser Unipublic / La Vuelta lists Tadej Pogačar and he is recorded as having started Stage 1 (not marked DNS) in the Stage 1 start/finish report, otherwise NO. If Stage 1 is canceled and no start is recorded, resolve using the organiser's published start list for the first competitive stage actually run. If the entire race is canceled before any stage starts, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against velo.outsideonline.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 82%, based on 17 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledPogačar will likely be on the start list. Given his prominence and team support, expect him to race Stage 1 unless something unexpected happens. He's too vital to miss this one.

94%
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64%
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60%
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68%
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43%
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50%
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