Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 29The rule required that the official general classification published by the race jury or organiser immediately after the completion of Stage 8 of the 2026 Vuelta a España on 29 August 2026 list Tadej Pogačar first for a yes outcome. On 29 August 2026 Pogačar crashed with 31 km to go in Stage 8 and abandoned the race, and the race organisers confirmed his withdrawal. Because he abandoned during the stage and was removed from the race, he was not listed first in the official general classification immediately after Stage 8, so the answer is no.
How markets are built and settled94%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 94% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that Tadej Pogačar crashed 31 km from the finish of Stage 8 on 29 August 2026 and abandoned/pulled out of the Vuelta (race organisers confirmed his withdrawal). Because he abandoned during Stage 8 and was removed from the race, he was not listed as the race leader (red jersey) immediately after the completion of Stage 8.
Source: flobikes.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledYes
Pogačar's been dominant so far, and with strong form heading into this stage, he’s likely to hold the lead. Expect him in red after Stage 8.

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