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OtherOpened Oct 14 · Results Oct 15
Will SNCF have at least 2,745 trains 5+ minutes late on October 15?
61%
Stable · last 24h
📊 806 bettors💎 35.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 15🤖 Context
The market pays out YES if Clutch’s finalized archived count for the local calendar day of October 15, 2026 shows at least 2,745 distinct SNCF trains whose maximum delay that day was 5 minutes or more. Clutch’s finalized daily total for October 15, 2026 (finalized October 15, 2026, 22:01 UTC, covering the local day through October 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC+02:00) was 2,690 distinct SNCF trains with a maximum delay of at least 5 minutes. Because 2,690 is less than the 2,745 threshold, the condition is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No61%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day 2026-10-15 (2026-10-15T00:00:00+02:00 through 2026-10-15T23:59:59+02:00) of distinct SNCF trains whose maximum delay during that day was >= 5 minutes must be at least 2,745. Observations used: Clutch finalized daily total (finalized 2026-10-15 22:01 UTC) covering the local calendar day ending 2026-10-15 21:59 UTC (which is 2026-10-15 23:59:00+02:00). Reported finalized total: 2,690 distinct SNCF trains with maximum delay >= 5 minutes; replacement coaches are explicitly not counted. Comparison: 2,690 < 2,745, so the market condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 61%
- Predictions made
- 806
- Credits staked
- 35,847
- Comments
- 6
- Opened
- Oct 14, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 15, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 16, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 6 comments
- 🦈
Yes, Friday is the big day for SNCF for the week, so I think we'll be above!
- 🦊
Yes, why not
- 🦊
2.400
- 🛡️
Of course, always stronger in the reliability of its delays, especially on Friday with heavy traffic just before the weekend of the 17th where the protests are expected to be intense and people will flee to leave during the school holidays, this Friday the 15th looks complicated.
- 🦊
Yes, why not
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