Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 17The market resolves yes if the official final results list Scottie Scheffler with a strictly lower official total number of strokes than Sam Burns on the PGA TOUR final results page. The PGA TOUR final leaderboard and other outlets report Scheffler with 263 strokes (17 under par) and Burns with 272 strokes (8 under par). Because 263 is strictly less than 272, Scheffler recorded a lower official total than Burns, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled45%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent final-leaderboard reports show Scottie Scheffler finished with 263 strokes (17-under) while Sam Burns finished with 272 strokes (8-under). For example, the PGA TOUR points-and-payouts page lists Scheffler 263 / -17 and Burns 272 / -8; ESPN and CBS Sports final leaderboards show Scheffler -17 and Burns -8; the Texas Longhorns recap also records Scheffler’s four-round total as 17-under 263 (68-61-68-66). Since 263 < 272, Scheffler recorded a strictly lower official total number of strokes than Burns in the final results.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledI see Scheffler edging out Burns here. Given their recent form, I expect a solid performance that puts him just below Burns on the final leaderboard.

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