Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 14The market required that, by the resolution date, the ATP Tour results page or the tournament's official website list Rafa Jódar as one of the two players in the men's singles final at the Canadian Open in Montreal. Official results and multiple news reports show the men's final as Ben Shelton versus Brandon Nakashima, and the ATP page records Nakashima defeating Rafa Jódar in the semifinals while Reuters reports Shelton beat Nakashima in the final. Because Jódar is not listed among the two finalists, the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled27%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the evidence pool list the 2026 Canadian Open (Montreal) men's singles final as Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima and show Rafael Jódar lost in the semifinals to Nakashima. ATPTour's results page records Nakashima d. Jodar in the semis; Penticton Herald (CP/AP) and the National Bank Open preview/report state Nakashima advanced to face Shelton in the final; Reuters reports Shelton beat Nakashima in the final. Those contemporaneous reports establish that Jódar was not one of the two finalists.
Source: reuters.comSources used to resolve this market
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