TechOpened Sep 18 · Results Sep 21

Will OpenAI's market share be above 18%?

59%

Stable · last 24h

📊 145 bettors💎 4.1K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Sep 21

🤖 Context

The market required Kalshi to mark contract KXOPENSHARE-26SEP21-18 as finalized with an official YES settlement based on OpenRouter’s 'text market share by model author' ranking for the week of Sep 17, 2026 using the Monday 10:00 AM ET values. Kalshi’s page shows the contract is finalized and that its official settlement is NO. Because the rule demanded an official YES but Kalshi finalized the contract as NO, the market resolves to no.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

59%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 59% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi contract KXOPENSHARE-26SEP21-18 must be marked 'finalized' on Kalshi.com with an official settlement result of YES for the market to resolve YES. Target: the contract's finalization (resolution uses OpenRouter week-of-Sep-17-2026 Monday 10:00 AM ET values, but the Kalshi page finalization is the authoritative settlement signal). Observed value from the supplied Kalshi ticker state: Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: the official finalized result is NO (not YES), therefore under the market's rule the contract resolves NO.

Source: kalshi.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 59%
Predictions made: 145
Credits staked: 4,079
Comments: 1
Opened: Sep 18, 2026
Closes: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: Sep 21, 2026
Outcome: No
Resolution source: kalshi.com

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
OpenAI is unlikely to reach 18% market share by the 21st. With current figures pointing toward them being grouped with 'Others,' it’s a clear NO.
Sep 18

2017 bets · 35.9K credits2

Details →

Will OpenAI's market share be above 18%?

🤖 Context

How this market resolved

Key facts

🔍 Sources

💬 1 comment

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