Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

88%
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65%
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YES if, no later than October 1, 2026, OpenAI's official product announcement, press release, OpenAI product page, or an authorized U.S. retailer's U.S. product listing states a U.S. retail price (MSRP) of at least $300.00 and at most $400.00 USD for at least one sellable SKU of the consumer AI smart speaker. Otherwise NO. Reports that only cite unnamed sources or rumors without an official MSRP or retailer listing by the deadline do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against techcrunch.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and demand for smart speakers, I expect OpenAI will price it in that range. This isn't just speculation; it's a reasonable forecast based on market trends.

88%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

62%
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69%
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17%
Stable · last 24h
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