Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 23The market required that the FIA's official final race classification for the Heineken Dutch Grand Prix at Circuit Park Zandvoort on 23 August 2026 list Max Verstappen as the classified winner (P1), after any post-race time penalties, disqualifications, or steward decisions. The official final classification and multiple reputable outlets including Formula1.com, the Associated Press, The Guardian and The Race show Lando Norris as the winner of the race on 23 August 2026, while Max Verstappen is recorded as retired, listed in position 22. Because the official classification names Norris P1 and Verstappen as retired, the condition for a yes is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled21%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources reporting the final race classification for the Dutch Grand Prix on 2026-08-23 show Lando Norris as the race winner and Max Verstappen as having crashed out/retired. The official-style results API (Jolpica/Ergast) lists Norris P1 and Verstappen as "Retired" (Pos 22). Formula1.com, The Guardian, The Race (and Associated Press coverage) all report Norris winning and Verstappen failing to finish. No supplied source lists Verstappen as P1 in the final classification after any penalties or steward decisions were applied, so the answer is NO.
Source: api.jolpi.caSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith three days to go, Verstappen's got a dominant season backing him. Unless something major disrupts his lead, he's likely to clinch this one.

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