Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 26The market required that the official FIA drivers' standings published after the race classification for the Qatar Airways Azerbaijan Grand Prix on 26 September 2026 list Max Verstappen in first place. The post-race standings from that event show Kimi Antonelli leading and list Max Verstappen sixth with 163 points. Because Verstappen is not listed first, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled8%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 92% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible post-race reports of the Drivers' Championship standings dated to the Azerbaijan GP (race 2026-09-26) show Kimi Antonelli leading the standings and Max Verstappen well down the order (e.g. P6 with 163 points). None of the supplied post-race standings list Verstappen in first. By corroboration across independent outlets, the official post-race standings do not list Max Verstappen first.
Source: theguardian.comSources used to resolve this market
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