Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 6The market pays yes if the FIA's official final classification for the 2026 Pirelli Italian Grand Prix at Monza on 6 September 2026 lists Max Verstappen classified in P1, P2 or P3. The FIA's official final classification for the race on 6 September 2026 records Max Verstappen as finishing third, P3, at Autodromo Nazionale Monza. Because third place falls within P1–P3, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled41%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 59% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence (Formula1.com race report, ESPN race results page, and Gazzetta live report) unambiguously list Max Verstappen as finishing third (P3) in the Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio d'Italia at Monza. Those sources corroborate the official classification for the race held on 6 September 2026, so the correct answer is YES (Verstappen was classified in P1–P3, specifically P3).
Source: formula1.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledHe is regularly in the top, but on a circuit like Monza, the Red Bull won't be as competitive as the other top teams; the Mercedes will be well ahead in terms of performance.
With Verstappen's track record, it's hard to imagine him missing the podium at Monza. He's consistently in the top three, so I'm betting on a YES here.

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