Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 28The market required that Mathieu van der Poel be listed as the winner, meaning first place, in the official final classification for the men’s elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships in Montréal. The race was held on 27 September 2026 and the published official classifications reported Brandon McNulty as the winner, with Matthews second and Mathieu van der Poel third. Because van der Poel is not listed in first place, the condition for a yes is not met, so the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources reporting the official final classification for the men's elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships (race held 2026-09-27) list Brandon McNulty as the winner and Mathieu van der Poel in third place. The Olympics.com results summary and independent media reports (Rouleur, Ouest‑France) all show McNulty first, Matthews second and van der Poel third, so van der Poel is not listed as the winner (first place) in the official final classification.
Source: olympics.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledMVP is going to be world champion even if he will be watched. Without Pogacar, he is the big favorite. His competitors will be the two Belgians, the Mexican, and the Frenchman, but without a fall, he is above them!!!
No
Van der Poel is a strong contender with a proven track record. Given the timing, he has a solid chance to take the top spot in the World Championship race.

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