Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 10To resolve yes, there had to be a public announcement or official registration by 11:59 on 10 September 2026 showing Louis Bielle‑Biarrey signed an extension with Union Bordeaux‑Bègles and that the published contract explicitly lists an expiry year of 2029 or later. Multiple independent outlets reported exactly that before the deadline: Sud Ouest reported an agreement on 25 August 2026 for a two‑year extension to 2029, Le Parisien reported a UBB announcement of a two‑season extension on 5 September 2026, Rugby‑Addict reported the contract runs until 2029 on 6 September 2026, and L'Équipe and other outlets echoed the same wording. Because those public reports and the club announcement explicitly list 2029 as the contract expiry and were published before 11:59 on 10 September 2026, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled96%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 96% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that Louis Bielle‑Biarrey has extended his Union Bordeaux‑Bègles contract through 2029. Le Parisien reports UBB announced a two‑season extension (to 2029) around the club’s season opener (published 05‑09‑2026); Sud Ouest reported an agreement for a two‑year extension to 2029 (25‑08‑2026); Rugby‑Addict likewise states he has prolonged until 2029 (06‑09‑2026). L'Équipe and several other independent outlets carried the same unambiguous outcome. These independent corroborations state the extension explicitly lists 2029 as the expiry year and were published before the 2026‑09‑10 11:59 (UTC+02:00) deadline, so the market resolves YES.
Source: leparisien.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the need for an official announcement, the chances are slim. I'd bet against this extension happening by the deadline.

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