Will Tadej Pogačar win the Vuelta a España overall?

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89%
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YES if the official stewards' decision and/or the official starting grid published for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix lists Kimi Antonelli as required to start the race from a grid position lower than his qualifying position and explicitly attributes the drop to installation of new power‑unit components or to exceeding power‑unit component allocations (wording like "power unit", "new ICE/MGU‑K/TC/ERS" or "exceeded allocation"). Otherwise NO. If Antonelli set no qualifying time but the stewards' published decision explicitly records a power‑unit penalty placing him at the back, count YES. If he is withdrawn before any stewards' decision or the stewards' published reasons do not mention power‑unit components, count NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 89%, based on 46 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's likely Antonelli starts lower on the grid; with the deadline approaching, the stewards usually penalize new power unit parts. Keep an eye on the official grid for confirmation.

35%
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37%
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56%
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31%
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31%
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67%
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