Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 15This market pays yes if the official results for the Leadville Trail 100 MTB held on August 15, 2026 list Keegan Swenson as the first-place finisher in the men's Elite/Pro category. Multiple independent cycling outlets published on August 15, 2026 report Keegan Swenson as the winner of the men's Elite/Pro race, giving him a winning time of 5:20:26 and describing him outsprinting Matt Wilson. Because those published results list Swenson first in the Elite/Pro men’s race on August 15, 2026, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled58%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent cycling outlets in the supplied evidence report that Keegan Swenson won the men’s Elite/Pro Leadville Trail 100 MTB on August 15, 2026. Velo’s race report (published Aug 15, 2026) lists Swenson as the winner (time 5:20:26) and describes him outsprinting Matt Wilson. Pinkbike’s results page (Aug 15, 2026) gives a full results table showing Keegan Swenson 1st in Elite Men with the same time. A CyclingNews link in the evidence likewise names Swenson as the winner (outsprinting Matt Wilson). These independent, dated sources corroborate that Swenson finished first on 2026-08-15.
Source: velo.outsideonline.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledSwenson's got a solid chance, but the competition is fierce and he's not guaranteed a win. If he pulls through, it could be close, but I'm skeptical given the field this year.

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