Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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75%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 13The market resolves yes if the official WTA draw or the tournament's official results page lists Iga Świątek as one of the two Toronto finalists, showing she advanced from the semifinal against Elina Svitolina on August 12, 2026. The official National Bank Open report dated August 12, 2026 records Świątek defeating Svitolina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, and the WTA and multiple news outlets report the same result and list her as a finalist. Because the official results show her advancing from that semifinal on August 12, 2026, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled75%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence report that Iga Świątek defeated Elina Svitolina in the Toronto (National Bank Open) semifinal and advanced to the final. The official tournament report (National Bank Open) gives the score 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 and is dated August 12, 2026; the WTA match reaction and newswire/press reports (AFP via Yahoo) and Sportsnet likewise report the same result. These independent, dated accounts establish that Swiatek advanced to the Toronto final on 2026-08-12.
Source: nationalbankopen.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledIga Świątek is quite capable of taking this semifinal against Svitolina. Given her track record, I’d bet on her making it to the final without too much trouble.

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