📱Tech·GadgetsCloses Oct 25 · Results Nov 1
Will YouTube Music let you save music to Apple Watch for offline playback?
18%
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TechOpened Oct 6 · Results Oct 12
Will Gemini be the #1 LLM on LM Arena (Remove Style Control) on Oct 12?
85%
Stable · last 24h
📊 359 bettors💎 16.5K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 12🤖 Context
The market pays yes if Google’s Gemini is ranked number one on the LM Arena overall leaderboard in the Remove Style Control view on October 12, 2026. The corresponding official final determination for that reference is yes, which reflects that on October 12, 2026 Gemini held the top spot in LM Arena’s Remove Style Control overall leaderboard. Because that condition is met, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes85%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Google’s Gemini is ranked #1 on the LM Arena overall leaderboard (Remove Style Control) on 2026-10-12; tie-breakers: Rank (UB) then Arena Score then votes then earlier release. Settlement rule in market text: settle identically to Kalshi ticker KXLLM1-26OCT12-GOOG and only when Kalshi shows an official finalized YES/NO. Observed data (Kalshi ticker KXLLM1-26OCT12-GOOG): Official status = finalized; Official finalized result = YES. Comparison: Kalshi's official finalized result is YES, so this market resolves YES. Decisive evidence date corresponds to the targeted leaderboard date 2026-10-12.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 85%
- Predictions made
- 359
- Credits staked
- 16,518
- Comments
- 6
- Opened
- Oct 6, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 12, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 12, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 6 comments
- 🪙
He is already first, too little time to change the trend (Gemini argon high at 1534 points, Claude opus 5.5 the second is at 1515)
- 💀
Yes. Gemini (Google) is currently number 1 on the LMArena ranking "Text Arena – Overall", without style control, according to data published on October 8, 2026.
- 🦊
Go
- ⚔️
Most definitely
- 🚀
Already 1st
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