Will France’s GDP rebound to non‑negative growth (≥ 0.0%) in Q2 2026?
46%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 15🤖 Context
This market asked whether INSEE or another authoritative source reports France's quarter-on-quarter real GDP for Q2 2026 as 0.0% or greater in its first or revised reading. Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate on 30 July 2026 and FocusEconomics on the same date reported France's Q2 quarter-on-quarter GDP at +0.2%, and Bloomberg reported on 9 July 2026 that the Bank of France estimated a 0.2% rise. Because these authoritative estimates show +0.2%, which is above 0.0%, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes46%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence report that France’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP for Q2 2026 was positive (+0.2% q/q). Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate (30 July 2026) lists France Q2 q/q = +0.2%. FocusEconomics (30 July 2026) likewise reports Q2 GDP expanded 0.2% q/q. Bloomberg (9 July 2026) reported the Bank of France’s estimate of a 0.2% q/q rise in Q2. These independent reports corroborate the same concrete outcome (Q2 q/q = +0.2%), so the answer is YES.
Source: ec.europa.euKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 46%
- Predictions made
- 15
- Credits staked
- 310
- Comments
- 0
- Opened
- May 29, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 14, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 15, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- ec.europa.eu, focus-economics.com, bloomberg.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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