🎭Culture·Pop cultureCloses Oct 27
Will Ariana Grande have over 14 million daily views on any day?
65%
+4% last 24h
952 bets · 39.3K credits11
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CultureOpened Sep 19 · Results Sep 23
Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?
62%
Stable · last 24h
📊 230 bettors💎 4.4K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 23🤖 Context
The market asked whether Elon Musk (@elonmusk) would post strictly fewer than 40 main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts on X between 12:00 PM ET on September 19, 2026 and 12:00 PM ET on September 21, 2026, inclusive, with replies excluded unless the tracker records them as main-feed posts and deleted posts counting if captured. The mirrored Polymarket market was resolved to no, and its 40–64 bracket resolved to yes, indicating the observed post total in that window fell between 40 and 64. Because the count was therefore at least 40 and not strictly fewer than 40, this market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Count of main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by @elonmusk on X between 12:00 PM ET on 2026-09-19 and 12:00 PM ET on 2026-09-21 inclusive is strictly fewer than 40 => YES, otherwise NO. The market rule states this market resolves identically to the mirrored Polymarket market. Observations matched from supplied data: Polymarket event 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?' shows resolution_status: resolved, closed: yes, outcome prices: Yes=0, No=1 (i.e. Polymarket resolved to NO). Corroborating Polymarket bracket market '40-64 tweets' resolved Yes=1, No=0, indicating the final count fell in the 40–64 range. Comparison: Polymarket's official resolution contradicts the '<40' condition, so this market resolves NO.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 62%
- Predictions made
- 230
- Credits staked
- 4,411
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 19, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 21, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 23, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip, polymarket.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
With Musk's sporadic posting, under 40 seems feasible in this window. His activity often swings, and I doubt he'll flood X this time around.
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