🕹️Culture·GamingCloses Oct 30 · Results Oct 31
Will a specific existing The Legend of Zelda game be named for a 40th‑anniversary remake?
95%
+1% last 24h
2413 bets · 59.8K credits80
Details →
CultureOpened Aug 22 · Results Aug 26
Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?
44%
Stable · last 24h
📊 344 bettors💎 9.7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 26🤖 Context
The rule counts only main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by @elonmusk on X between 12:00 PM ET on August 22, 2026 and 12:00 PM ET on August 24, 2026, and says the market is yes only if that total is strictly fewer than 40. Polymarket's mirrored market was officially resolved when the counting window closed at 12:00 PM ET on August 24, 2026 and its official result was no. Because this market resolves identically to Polymarket's official resolution, the outcome here is no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No44%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: count of main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts by @elonmusk on X during the interval 12:00 PM ET on 2026-08-22 through 12:00 PM ET on 2026-08-24 is strictly fewer than 40 -> YES; otherwise NO. Target window: 2026-08-22 12:00 PM ET to 2026-08-24 12:00 PM ET. Observed evidence (from supplied Polymarket data): the mirrored Polymarket market “Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?” is marked resolved and closed with outcome prices Yes=0, No=1 — i.e. Polymarket’s official resolution was NO. The market rule requires resolving identically to Polymarket’s official resolution, so this market resolves NO. Decisive evidence date is the end of the counted interval, 2026-08-24.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 44%
- Predictions made
- 344
- Credits staked
- 9,727
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Aug 22, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 26, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip, polymarket.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🐺
33 posts with 17 hours left, fingers crossed🤞
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given Musk's history, I doubt he stays under 40 posts in this window. He's been quite prolific lately, and even with 46 hours left, that's a low bar.
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