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544 bets · 19.3K credits11
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TechOpened Oct 3 · Results Oct 8
Will DeepSeek have the second-highest OpenRouter market share?
37%
Stable · last 24h
📊 380 bettors💎 13.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 8🤖 Context
The market required that DeepSeek be the lab with the second-highest market share on OpenRouter's Market Share chart set to Percentage for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026, with 'Stealth' and 'others' skipped and ties resolved by the chart's ordering. The mirrored Polymarket event for that same week officially resolved to no. Because the official mirrored resolution indicates DeepSeek was not the second-highest lab under those criteria, this market resolves no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: DeepSeek must be the lab with the second-highest OpenRouter market share for the week 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04, measured by the percentage displayed in OpenRouter's Market Share chart (skip 'Stealth'/'others'; ties resolved per chart, then mirrored Polymarket if still ambiguous). Observed evidence (from supplied data): the mirrored Polymarket market “Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?” is resolved (Event closed: yes) with outcome prices Yes=0, No=1, i.e. official mirrored Polymarket resolution = No. The market rule states this market resolves identically to the mirrored Polymarket official resolution; therefore this market resolves NO. Observed value used: Polymarket official resolution = No for DeepSeek. Comparison: Polymarket resolved that DeepSeek did NOT have second-highest share for the week, so outcome = NO.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 37%
- Predictions made
- 380
- Credits staked
- 13,768
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Oct 3, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 5, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 8, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip, polymarket.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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