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TechOpened Aug 27 · Results Sep 9
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7?
53%
Stable · last 24h
📊 176 bettors💎 4.3K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 9🤖 Context
To resolve yes, the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard filtered to Models had to list "claude-opus-5-max" as the single top-ranked model at 12:00 PM ET on September 7, 2026, excluding any entries marked AutoEval and using Arena score to break ties. At that exact check time, claude-opus-5-max was not listed as the unique top-ranked model on the leaderboard. Because the required condition was not met, the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No53%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: At 12:00 PM ET on 2026-09-07, the arena.ai Text Arena | Overall Leaderboard (filtered to 'Models', style control off) must list 'claude-opus-5-max' as the single top-ranked model (highest 'Rank'); AutoEval entries excluded; ties broken by Arena score. Observations used: supplied Polymarket official market state shows the mirrored market titled 'Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?' — resolution status: resolved, closed: yes, outcome prices: Yes=0, No=1. Per the rule text (which directs this market to resolve identically to Polymarket's official resolution), the mirrored Polymarket market resolved NO for claude-opus-5-max. Comparison: Polymarket's resolved outcome (No) means claude-opus-5-max was not the unique top-ranked model at the specified check time, so this market resolves NO.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 53%
- Predictions made
- 176
- Credits staked
- 4,295
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Aug 27, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 7, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 10, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip, polymarket.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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