Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 1The market pays out yes if the United States Tennis Association's official draw and match scoreboard list Arthur Fery as the winner of his scheduled men's singles first-round match against Lorenzo Musetti at the 2026 US Open. Multiple reputable outlets reported that Lorenzo Musetti beat Arthur Fery 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 in the first round. Because Fery was not recorded as the winner or shown advancing to the second round, the condition for a yes is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent reputable outlets report that Lorenzo Musetti beat Arthur Fery in the men's singles first round at the 2026 US Open (score reported 6-3, 6-3, 7-5). Sources include BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports and Yahoo, so Arthur Fery did not win his scheduled first-round match.
Source: bbc.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledMusetti's experience should give him the edge here. Fery might surprise, but I wouldn't bet on it. Musetti's got this one.

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