Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 17The market pays yes if Arthur Fery is officially recorded as the winner of the men's singles match versus Alex de Minaur at the Cincinnati Open on August 17, 2026, and wins by retirement, walkover, default, or disqualification count. Multiple reputable sources report that Alex de Minaur beat Arthur Fery 7-5, 7-6(3) on August 17, 2026. Because Fery was not the official winner, the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled35%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources report that Alex de Minaur defeated Arthur Fery 7-5, 7-6(3) in their Cincinnati Open match on 17 August 2026. Therefore, Arthur Fery was not the officially recorded winner.
Source: theguardian.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledFery's been solid lately, facing a tough opponent in de Minaur. Given the stakes today, I’d say he’s got a good shot to pull through, even if it’s tight.

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