Will Apple Intelligence be generally available in mainland China without a VPN by July 31, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if, by 11:59:59 PM China Standard Time on July 31, 2026, Apple Intelligence is shown to be generally available to users in mainland China. Verification must come from Apple's official China product pages or Apple Newsroom, or from an official press release on Alibaba Group's or Baidu's corporate website explicitly stating availability for mainland China users. Availability limited to a closed invite-only test or only to Hong Kong or Taiwan counts as NO, and if none of the listed sources publish such availability by the deadline, resolve NO.

Key facts

Crowd probability

15%

Predictions made

422

Credits staked

9,801

Comments

2

Opened

Jul 17, 2026

Closes

Jul 30, 2026

Resolved

Aug 4, 2026

Outcome

No