Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 13The market required that the US Open's official men's singles draw or results list Frances Tiafoe as one of the two finalists by the resolution date. The US Open reported on September 11, 2026 that Ben Shelton beat Tiafoe 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5, and the official draw shows the final as Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton. Because Tiafoe is not listed among the two finalists under that rule, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Authoritative match reports show Frances Tiafoe lost his 2026 US Open semifinal. The official US Open report (Sep 11, 2026) states Ben Shelton defeated Tiafoe 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 to reach the final; ESPN likewise reports Shelton beat Tiafoe to advance; the US Open draws/scores page lists the men's final as Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton. Those contemporaneous, independent reports establish Tiafoe did not win his semifinal and is not one of the two finalists.
Source: usopen.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith the semifinals quickly approaching, Tiafoe's chances are solid. If he can win, he’ll be in the final, and I think he’ll get it done. Expect him to push through.

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