Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 11The market pays yes if Elena Rybakina is listed as one of the two players scheduled for the 2026 US Open women's singles final in the US Open's official results or the WTA's official tournament records. The WTA preview names Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina as the finalists, and the US Open's official on-court interview and the tournament's official highlights show Rybakina won her semifinal and will face Sabalenka in the final. Those official sources meet the rule, so the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence unambiguously list Elena Rybakina as a scheduled finalist. The WTA preview explicitly names ‘Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina’ as the US Open finalists. The US Open’s official on‑court interview and the official highlights (uploaded to the US Open channel) confirm Rybakina won her semifinal and will face Sabalenka in the final. These contemporaneous, authoritative reports corroborate that Rybakina is listed as one of the two players scheduled to play the women's singles final.
Source: wtatennis.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledRybakina has shown solid form this tournament and has a good chance to reach the final. I'm confident she'll be one of the last two standing at the US Open.

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