Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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88%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 20The market pays yes if the official Premier League table shows Arsenal with 18 or more points at 9:00 AM on 20 October 2026 (UTC+1). The published table for that instant, corresponding to the 08:00 UTC snapshot, lists Arsenal with 18 points, and a read at 08:12 UTC confirms no fixtures changed the table between 08:00 and 08:12. Because 18 meets the 18 point threshold, the condition is satisfied, so the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled88%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Arsenal has >= 18 points in the official Premier League table at 2026-10-20T09:00:00+01:00 (this is 2026-10-20 08:00 UTC). Observations used: table read at 2026-10-20 08:12 UTC which explicitly states no fixture occurred between the snapshot instant (2026-10-20 08:00 UTC) and the read, so the table shown is the table as of the snapshot. The table shows Arsenal with 18 points. Comparison: 18 >= 18, so the condition is satisfied. Conclusion: YES.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
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