Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 11The market required that the combined number of yellow-card cautions listed in the official full-time match reports for the nine specified Ligue 1 fixtures played between 9 and 11 October 2026 be 32 or more. The official reports show 34 yellow cards in total across those matches: Lens v Lyon 2, Lille v Le Havre 4, AS Monaco v Toulouse 4, Brest v Angers 2, Lorient v Paris FC 6, Paris Saint-Germain v Le Mans 5, Nice v Strasbourg 2, Stade Rennais v AJ Auxerre 4, and Troyes v Marseille 5. Because 34 is at least 32, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: combined number of yellow cards in the nine specified Ligue 1 matches played 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11 must be ≥ 32. Supplied data (complete set) lists 9 matches and reports 34 yellow cards in total (per-match: Lens 2; Lille 4; AS Monaco 4; Brest 2; Lorient 6; Paris Saint-Germain 5; Nice 2; Stade Rennais 4; Troyes 5). Comparison: 34 ≥ 32, so YES.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith an average of 3.44 yellow cards per match, hitting 32 in nine games is very likely. Expect plenty of cautions across these fixtures.

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