Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

33%
Stable · last 24h

61%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 11The market pays yes if the combined goals scored in the nine Ligue 1 fixtures scheduled from 9 to 11 October 2026 (Lens v Lyon; Lille v Le Havre AC; AS Monaco v Toulouse; Brest v Angers; Lorient v Paris FC; Paris Saint‑Germain v Le Mans; Nice v Strasbourg; Stade Rennais v AJ Auxerre; Troyes v Marseille) is 26 or more at full time, counting goals in regulation and added time but not shootout goals. The nine matches finished as follows: Lens 2-1, Lille 1-0, AS Monaco 2-2, Brest 5-1, Lorient 1-0, Paris Saint-Germain 3-1, Nice 2-1, Stade Rennais 4-1 and Troyes 0-2, with the Rennes 4-1 result on 11 October 2026 pushing the running total above the threshold. Those scores sum to 29 goals, which meets the 26 or more condition, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled61%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: the sum of goals scored by both teams across the nine specified Ligue 1 fixtures scheduled 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11 must be 26 or more at full-time (count goals in regulation and added time). Observed final scores from the supplied data: Lens 2-1 (3), Lille 1-0 (1), AS Monaco 2-2 (4), Brest 5-1 (6), Lorient 1-0 (1), Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 (4), Nice 2-1 (3), Stade Rennais 4-1 (5), Troyes 0-2 (2). Sum = 3 + 1 + 4 + 6 + 1 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 2 = 29. Comparison: 29 >= 26, therefore YES. The supplied dataset states this is the complete set of fixtures in that span. Decisive observation: Stade Rennais 4-1 AJ Auxerre on 2026-10-11 (after which the cumulative total exceeded the threshold).
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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