Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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48%
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Resolved: No
Results Oct 19The market required the official Liga MX league table published no later than 9:00 AM on October 19, 2026 (UTC−06:00) to list Toluca in a higher position than América for a yes. The official table at that snapshot shows América in 1st place with 24 points and Toluca in 2nd place with 21 points. Because Toluca is below América in the published standings, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Toluca must be listed in a higher (numerically smaller) position than América in the official Liga MX table published at 2026-10-19T09:00:00-06:00 (snapshot). The snapshot instant 2026-10-19T09:00:00-06:00 equals 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z. Observed data (read at 2026-10-19 15:01 UTC) explicitly states no fixture occurred between the snapshot instant and the read, and provides the table as it stood at that instant. The table shows: #1 América (24 pts), #2 Toluca (21 pts). Points differ, so tie-breakers are not needed. Comparison: Toluca position = 2, América position = 1; 2 is not numerically smaller than 1, so Toluca is not above América. Therefore the market resolves NO.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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