Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 12The market paid out yes if the official Liga MX standings published no later than 9:00 AM on 12 October 2026 Central Time (UTC−6) listed Atlas in a numerically smaller position number than Guadalajara, meaning Atlas would be placed higher in the table. At the 9:00 AM CT cutoff on 12 October 2026 the standings showed Guadalajara in 4th place and Atlas in 6th place. Because 6 is not a smaller number than 4, Atlas was not listed above Guadalajara, so the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled18%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Atlas must have a numerically smaller (higher) position number than Guadalajara in the Liga MX overall standings as published at 2026-10-12T09:00:00-06:00 (UTC−6), which equals 2026-10-12 15:00:00 UTC. Supplied data states the table is the league table as of 2026-10-12 15:00 UTC. Observed values at that instant: Guadalajara = position #4; Atlas = position #6. Comparison: 6 < 4 is false, so Atlas is not listed higher than Guadalajara. Therefore the market resolves NO.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledAtlas is just a point behind Guadalajara and has a few matches to turn things around. Given their form, it's possible they'll leap ahead by the 12th, so I'm going with YES.

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