Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 22The market required that the official match reports for the nine Liga MX fixtures played on 20 and 21 October 2026 show a combined total of 37 or more yellow cards, counting second-yellow cautions that become red as yellow. The nine matches recorded these yellow card totals: Guadalajara vs Necaxa 1, Atlético de San Luis vs Querétaro 0, FC Juárez vs Atlante 7, Tigres UANL vs León 1, Atlas vs América 3, Puebla vs Monterrey 2, Toluca vs Tijuana 0, Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 8, and Santos vs Pumas UNAM 4, for a combined total of 26 yellow cards. Because 26 is fewer than the required 37, the condition was not met and the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled46%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 54% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: The nine Liga MX fixtures played between 2026-10-20 and 2026-10-21 must show a combined total of 37 or more yellow cards (second-yellow→red counts as yellow if included in the official match statistics). Target window: matches on 2026-10-20 and 2026-10-21 (the nine listed fixtures). Observed values from the supplied source (per-match yellow counts): Guadalajara vs Necaxa 1; Atlético de San Luis vs Querétaro 0; FC Juárez vs Atlante 7; Tigres UANL vs León 1; Atlas vs América 3; Puebla vs Monterrey 2; Toluca vs Tijuana 0; Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 8; Santos vs Pumas UNAM 4. Observed combined yellow cards = 26 (the supplied data also reports 1 red card, described as 'including second yellows'). Comparison: 26 < 37, so the market resolves NO.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the historical average of 4.06 yellow cards per match, it's reasonable to expect more than 37 cards across these nine matches. So, yes, I think it will happen.

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