Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 6The market pays out yes if Paulinho is recorded as having taken the field in the 2026 Leagues Cup final, either listed in the starting XI or brought on as a substitute, according to the official Leagues Cup match report or major outlets. The 2026 Leagues Cup final between Toluca and Monterrey was played at Shell Energy Stadium on September 6, 2026, and Paulinho was substituted on in the 78th minute. Because he entered the match as a substitute and therefore took the field, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled39%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: - Premise (Leagues Cup official site): The 2026 Leagues Cup Final was Toluca FC vs. C.F. Monterrey on September 6 at Shell Energy Stadium. This identifies the specific match designated as the final. (leaguescup.com) - Premise (USA TODAY match recap): In that final, “Mohamed brought Paulinho off the bench in the 78th minute,” i.e., he entered the match as a substitute. (usatoday.com) - Corroboration (FotMob match report): The Leagues Cup Final match details list a 78' substitution: Paulinho on, Helinho off, confirming he took the field. (fotmob.com) - Inference: Entering as a substitute means he took the field. - Conclusion: Paulinho (Toluca) took the field in the 2026 Leagues Cup final.
Source: leaguescup.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledConsidering the timeline and that Paulinho is likely to play if fit, I'd say he enters the field during the final. The stakes are high, and teams typically use their key players in crucial matches.

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