Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 11The market required that the total number of penalties awarded, as recorded in official match reports for the nine LaLiga fixtures played from 9 to 11 October 2026, be four or more. The official reports show that eight matches were played in that window and three penalties were recorded in total: Alavés vs Atlético 1, Real Sociedad vs Deportivo 1, Real Betis vs Osasuna 1, and zero in the other matches. Because the recorded total is 3, which is below the four‑penalty threshold, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: total number of penalties awarded (penalty kicks given by the referee) recorded in the official match reports for La Liga fixtures played between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11 is >= 4. Target window: 2026-10-09 through 2026-10-11 (inclusive). Observations from supplied data: the complete set lists 8 matches played in that window and gives a total ‘Penalties awarded: 3’ (per-match breakdown: Alavés vs Atlético — 1; Real Sociedad vs Deportivo — 1; Real Betis vs Osasuna — 1; all other matches 0). Comparison: observed total 3 < threshold 4, so the market resolves NO. Note: the data explicitly states only 8 fixtures were played in the window (any postponed/cancelled fixtures are omitted and count as zero).
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the recent penalty rate of just 0.44 penalties per match, expecting four across nine games seems unlikely. I'm betting no penalties will reach that threshold.

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