Will FURIA fail to reach the Worlds 2026 knockout stage?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 29The market rules say yes if, by the end of September 28, 2026 Mexico City local date, Manelyk González is still an active contestant on La Granja VIP Segunda Temporada and no official elimination, withdrawal, disqualification, or announced exit has been aired or published on TV Azteca’s La Granja pages, aztecauno.com gala/episode recaps, or mainstream Mexican entertainment press. TV Azteca published recent material including the gala for the 27 September elimination that names Carlos Trejo as the eliminated contestant, and Publimetro on 24 September 2026 listed Manelyk among the Week 3 nominees. None of the cited outlets reported Manelyk leaving through the end of 28 September 2026, so she remained an active participant and the outcome is yes.
How markets are built and settled18%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 82% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied sources show Manelyk González was still participating and was not reported as eliminated, withdrawn, disqualified, or having announced an exit through the end of the requested window. TV Azteca (the programme’s broadcaster) publishes recent stories/videos featuring Manelyk and includes the gala material for the 27 Sept elimination (which identifies Carlos Trejo as the eliminated contestant). Independent coverage (Publimetro, 2026-09-24) lists Manelyk among the Week‑3 nominees and confirms the elimination gala occurred on 27 Sept. None of the provided pages report Manelyk leaving the competition up to and including 2026-09-28, so she remained an active participant by the end of that date.
Source: tvazteca.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the proximity to the deadline and the current lack of eliminations, it seems likely Manelyk will still be in the game by the 28th. Betting on her staying in is safe for now.

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