Will FURIA fail to reach the Worlds 2026 knockout stage?

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53%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 29The market requires that by September 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM CEST Lola Labesse be officially still an active participant on TF1's Koh‑Lanta All Stars, meaning she must not have been shown or announced eliminated, evacuated, or withdrawn in any episode aired up to that time, and if she was eliminated earlier she only counts if she returned to the main competition before the cutoff, with a season that ended earlier counting only if she reached the finale without a prior elimination. TV recaps show Lola was voted out and sent to the show's "île des bannis" in earlier episodes, and the episode aired on September 29 still depicts her on the île des bannis reunited with Charlotte and preparing to compete to try to rejoin the main game. Because she had been shown eliminated earlier and had not returned to the main competition by the cutoff, the condition is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled53%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 53% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent TV-news recaps in the supplied evidence show Lola Labesse was voted out and sent to Koh‑Lanta’s “île des bannis” in earlier episodes (e.g. TéléStar 2026-09-16). Recaps of the episode aired 29 September 2026 (Allociné; Programme‑TV) describe Lola as still on the île des bannis and reuniting there with Charlotte, with the two set to compete to try to re‑integrate the main game — i.e. Lola had been shown eliminated earlier and had not returned to the main competition by the 29 Sep broadcast. The market’s condition requires that, if eliminated earlier, the contestant must have returned to the main competition before the cutoff to count as an active participant; because the evidence shows she had not returned by 2026-09-29, the correct settlement is NO.
Source: allocine.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that the finale is just around the corner, if Lola hasn't been eliminated yet and remains relevant, she'll likely still be in the game by the 29th. So, yes.

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