Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

28%
+5% last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 3YES if the round-of-16 singles match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi at the Kinoshita Group Japan Open in Tokyo has been completed and the official match result records Carlos Alcaraz as the winner, otherwise NO. • A win recorded after play, including a retirement or a walkover, counts as a YES. • If the match is postponed and later played, resolve on the eventual official result once the match is completed. If the match is not played at all and no winner is declared for that scheduled match, the market resolves NO. • Source: ATP Tour match centre and the Kinoshita Group Japan Open official results page.
How markets are built and settled94%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 94% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official ATP result for the Kinoshita Group Japan Open indicates that Carlos Alcaraz defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(6), 6-1 in the second round / round of 16 in Tokyo. The ATP page is the official source for the tournament results.
Source: atptour.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
28%
+5% last 24h

97%
Stable · last 24h

59%
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70%
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