Will at least 21,200 bets be placed on Clutch on September 4 (UTC)?

63%
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53%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day no later than September 5 shows at least 400 distinct Renfe long-distance trains that ran 5 or more minutes late between local midnight and the end of September 5, using Renfe's long-distance service classification. Otherwise NO. Settlement will use Clutch's finalized archived daily total computed from Renfe's official real-time feed.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 7 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith 414 trains already reported late, it seems highly likely that we’ll hit the 400 mark by the end of the day. Delays are common, and a slight bump should easily push us over.

63%
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89%
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65%
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78%
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40%
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30%
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