Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix in Austin on October 25?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 12The market pays out yes if the Bundesliga table published at 9:00 AM CEST on October 12, 2026 shows Bayer Leverkusen in a higher position than Mainz, with the published ordering used to break any tie. The Bundesliga table published at that time lists Bayer Leverkusen in 4th place with 10 points and Mainz in 8th place with 7 points. Since 4 is a higher position than 8, the condition is met, so the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled32%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 68% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Bayer Leverkusen must be in a higher position (numerically smaller rank) than Mainz in the Bundesliga table published at 2026-10-12T09:00:00+02:00 (2026-10-12 07:00:00 UTC). Observed data: the supplied Bundesliga table read at 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC lists Bayer Leverkusen at rank 4 with 10 points and Mainz at rank 8 with 7 points. Comparison: 4 < 8, so Bayer Leverkusen is above Mainz at the required instant. Outcome: YES.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven their current form and head-to-head match coming up, Leverkusen has a decent shot at finishing above Mainz by the resolution date.

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