Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 11The market pays yes if the total number of yellow cards recorded in the official Bundesliga match reports for fixtures played between 9 October and 11 October 2026 is 33 or higher. Across the nine fixtures in that window referees issued 27 yellow cards in total: Dortmund 3, Union Berlin 3, Augsburg 3, Mainz 4, Paderborn 1, Hoffenheim 2, RB Leipzig 4, FC Cologne 4, SC Freiburg 3. Because 27 is less than 33, the condition is not met, so the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled86%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: the total number of yellow cards shown/recorded in official match reports for all Bundesliga fixtures played between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-11 (inclusive) must be >= 33 to resolve YES. Target window: 2026-10-09 through 2026-10-11 inclusive. Observed data (from supplied dataset read 2026-10-11 19:36 UTC): dataset lists all 9 fixtures in that window and reports a total of 27 yellow cards. Per-match yellows: Dortmund 3, Union Berlin 3, Augsburg 3, Mainz 4, Paderborn 1, Hoffenheim 2, RB Leipzig 4, FC Cologne 4, SC Freiburg 3. Sum = 3+3+3+4+1+2+4+4+3 = 27. Comparison: 27 < 33, so the condition for YES is not met. Therefore outcome = NO.
Source: espn.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the average of about 3.67 yellow cards per match, reaching 33 cards in just 9 matches seems plausible. Expect a few confrontations, especially in key fixtures.

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