Der Rückblick · 29. August 2026

Warum: Multiple independent sources show Arthur Gea lost in the final round of qualifying and was not added to the main draw as a qualifier. ATP Tour's qualifying-final report (Aug 28, 2026) records: Nishesh Basavareddy [32] d. [1] Arthur Gea 6-3, 6-1. The US Open's own report (Aug 28, 2026) states Basavareddy "upset top qualifying seed Arthur Gea" and lists Basavareddy among those who earned main-draw berths. The US Open men's main-draw entry list PDF does not list Gea as a "Qualifier" — he appears among alternates instead. Taken together, the evidence shows Gea did not earn main-draw entry by winning the final qualifying round and is not listed as a qualifier.

Warum: The supplied match report (TennisMajors) dated 2026-08-26 shows Kyrian Jacquet lost his US Open qualifying match to Aziz Dougaz in the second round, so he did not win the tournament's final qualifying round. The US Open men's singles entry-list PDF in the evidence lists Jacquet among the alternates (entry 133), not as a main-draw "Qualifier." Taken together, the evidence shows he was not listed as a "Qualifier" by the completion of qualifying.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets report that Tadej Pogačar crashed 31 km from the finish of Stage 8 on 29 August 2026 and abandoned/pulled out of the Vuelta (race organisers confirmed his withdrawal). Because he abandoned during Stage 8 and was removed from the race, he was not listed as the race leader (red jersey) immediately after the completion of Stage 8.

Warum: Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily maximum temperature for Mexico City on 2026-08-28 >= 25.0 °C. Target date: 2026-08-28. Observed value (from supplied Open-Meteo data): daily max for 2026-08-28 = 24 °C (recorded). Comparison: 24.0 °C < 25.0 °C, so the condition is not met. The Open-Meteo value for 2026-08-28 is recorded (data retrieved 2026-08-29 local), so it settles the market as NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily maximum temperature for New York City on local date 2026-08-28 must be ≥ 28.0 °C. Observation used: Open-Meteo reports temperature_2m_max for Friday 2026-08-28 = 28.1 °C (recorded). Comparison: 28.1 °C ≥ 28.0 °C → condition met, so YES.

Warum: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence place Iselle's circulation center well offshore and report no landfall or crossing onto Mexican territory. The National Hurricane Center (Advisory/Discussion No. 15, 27 Aug 2026) located the center at 23.0°N 125.9°W (about 1,015 mi west of the southern tip of Baja California), declared the system post-tropical, issued the final advisory, and noted there were no coastal watches or warnings. GDACS labels the event “Off-shore.” Mexican sources cited (Ambito, referencing SMN/Conagua) report the center hundreds of kilometers west/ west‑southwest of Cabo San Lucas and state the system would not affect Mexican states. Newsweek, Fox Weather, USA Today and other outlets in the pool likewise report Iselle remained well offshore and was forecast to curve away from Baja. None of the supplied pages report the circulation center moving over Mexican sovereign territory (including offshore Mexican islands) on or before 2026-08-28T23:59:59-06:00. Based on these corroborating observations and official positions, the answer is NO.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that Apple cut jobs across its Vision Pro and Siri teams on or around August 21, 2026. Bloomberg’s report (corroborated by The Verge, TechCrunch, 9to5Mac, LA Times and others) states the cuts affected more than 200 people, with about 100 positions eliminated from the Vision Pro organization and roughly 100 from Siri and related software teams. Those reports explicitly describe the affected roles as working on “Vision Pro” and “Siri,” and they are dated before the market deadline (on/around 2026-08-21), so the condition (at least 100 employees described as working on Siri and/or Vision Pro were laid off or announced to be laid off) is met.

Warum: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second estimate for 2026:Q2 reports real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5%; the BEA advance estimate also reported 1.5%. Independent news outlets (Reuters, Axios) likewise reported a 1.5% annualized increase. 1.5% is below the 3.0% threshold, so the Q2 2026 annualized real GDP growth did not exceed 3.0%.

Warum: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT last-executed spot trade price at 2026-08-29T10:00:00Z must be >= 80,000 USDT. Target instant: 2026-08-29 10:00:00 UTC. Observed value from the supplied Binance hourly observations: 2026-08-29 10:00 UTC = 77,650.02 USDT. Comparison: 77,650.02 < 80,000, so the condition is not met → NO.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that the Spanish Government created a single-command structure for the Ceuta crisis and designated Territorial Policy Minister Ángel Víctor Torres as its coordinator. Africanews (2026-08-25) states that after Moncloa meetings Torres “was designated as coordinator for the new entity.” Yahoo (AFP coverage) reports the Cabinet approved the creation of a “single command” to be led by Torres. El País (updated 2026-08-26) reports the BOE published the royal decree declaring a national-security-interest situation in Ceuta with a mando único led by Ángel Víctor Torres. Taken together these independent accounts show the Government formally designated him (cabinet decision cited on 2026-08-25, with BOE publication 2026-08-26), which is on or before the market deadline of 2026-08-28.

Warum: Extracted condition: at least one metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or the national roll-up is at vigilance level orange (3) or red (4) for the hazard 'Orages' (thunderstorms) at any point on 2026-08-28. Target date/window: 2026-08-28. Observations used: the supplied Météo‑France archived Vigilance map for 2026-08-28 lists FRANCE (national roll-up) as Orages = orange from 2026-08-28T02:00:00Z to 2026-08-28T08:00:00Z, and additionally lists multiple metropolitan départements (e.g. 01 Ain, 21 Côte-d'Or, 25 Doubs, 39 Jura, 67 Bas-Rhin, 68 Haut-Rhin, 69 Rhône, 90 Territoire de Belfort, etc.) at Orages = orange during intervals on 2026-08-28. Comparison: at least one eligible area (the national roll-up and several metropolitan départements) is shown at orange for Orages on 2026-08-28, which satisfies the market's YES condition.

Warum: Extracted condition: At least one Spanish area is listed at AEMET Meteoalerta level 'naranja' or 'rojo' specifically for the hazard 'Rissagas' at any time during 28 August 2026 (Spain local time). Target window: 2026-08-28 (00:00:00 to 23:59:59, Spain local time). Observations from the supplied AEMET archived warnings for 2026-08-28: 'Costa - Menorca' — Hazard: Rissagas — Level: naranja (orange) — From 2026-08-28T18:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-29T01:59:59+02:00 (entry appears twice). This interval begins on 2026-08-28 at 18:00 (Spain local time), so it falls within 28 August 2026. Therefore the condition is satisfied and the correct resolution is YES.

Warum: Extracted condition: Madrid recorded daily maximum on 2026-08-28 >= 26.0 °C. Source used (preferred): Open-Meteo daily record for Madrid. Observed value: 2026-08-28 temperature_2m_max = 25.5 °C (recorded). Comparison: 25.5 °C < 26.0 °C, so the threshold was not met. Open-Meteo published a single numeric daily maximum for that date, which is binding per the rule. Therefore the market resolves NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily maximum temperature in Paris on 2026-08-28 >= 25.0 °C. Target date: Friday 2026-08-28. Observed value (from supplied Open-Meteo data): daily max for 2026-08-28 = 23.4 °C (recorded). Comparison: 23.4 °C < 25.0 °C, so the threshold was not met. Only recorded (not forecast) values were used to settle.

Warum: Multiple independent sources in the provided evidence report that Team Vitality won the LEC match vs Fnatic on 28 August 2026. The match pages on rft.gg and loltv.gg show game-by-game scores with Vitality winning the series (coming back after dropping Game 1), egamersworld published a dated article headlined that Vitality reverse-swept Fnatic on 2026-08-28, and the Polymarket event page also shows the series result. These corroborating reports establish that Team Vitality was the match winner on 2026-08-28.

Warum: Multiple independent esports outlets in the provided evidence report that Team Vitality and Fnatic played an LEC best-of-3 on 2026-08-28 and publish a final series result (Team Vitality won 2–1, with game scores listed). Sources include match pages and news writeups that state the date, map results, and the winner, establishing that the match took place on 2026-08-28 and had a recorded winner.

Warum: The market's primary match page from ESPN (provided in the evidence) shows the final score as San Diego Wave FC 3, Racing Louisville FC 2 (FT), with San Diego goals credited to Trinity Byars (47', 76') and Kenza Dali (80') and Louisville goals to Lauren Milliet (12') and Taylor Flint (23'). An independent recap/photo gallery from The Sporting Tribune also reports 'Wave FC defeat Racing Louisville, 3-2' (match dated Aug 28, 2026). Based strictly on these supplied sources, San Diego scored more goals than Racing Louisville in the final official result.

Warum: Extracted condition: resolve YES if the most recent poll (topmost row) in the 'Main voting-intention table' on the specified Wikipedia page as it appears at the resolution date shows PRI's numeric percentage strictly greater than MC's. Target: the topmost table row shown at resolution (the 11 Aug poll). Observed topmost row (11 Aug, Statistical Research Corporation): PRI = 10.2, MC = 9.0. Comparison: 10.2 > 9.0, so the condition is satisfied; both numeric percentages are present in the table, so no additional pollster/news lookup was required. Outcome: YES.

Warum: Multiple independent outlets report that on August 28, 2026, the LFP decided to invert the Round 23 Rennes–PSG return fixture so it will be played at the Parc des Princes in Paris, not at Roazhon Park in Rennes. Rennes may appeal, but as of now the scheduled venue is Parc des Princes.