Eröffnet 23. Aug. · Ergebnisse 29. Aug.

Will tropical cyclone Iselle make landfall in Mexico?

43%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 118 Wettende💎 5502 im Einsatz

AufgelöstNein

Aufgelöst: Nein

Ergebnisse 29. Aug.

🤖 Kontext

The market required an authoritative meteorological agency, preferably Mexico's SMN or the U.S. NHC, to explicitly state that Iselle's circulation center moved from over water onto Mexican sovereign territory by August 28, 2026, or failing that, for two or more major news outlets to give an unambiguous time and location. In reality the NHC's Advisory/Discussion No. 15 on 27 Aug 2026 placed the center at 23.0°N, 125.9°W, about 1,015 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, declared the system post-tropical and issued its final advisory, and Mexican sources and major news organizations reported the center remained hundreds of kilometers west or west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Because neither SMN nor the NHC declared landfall and the news reports consistently placed the center well offshore, the landfall condition was not met, so the market resolves no.

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Warum: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence place Iselle's circulation center well offshore and report no landfall or crossing onto Mexican territory. The National Hurricane Center (Advisory/Discussion No. 15, 27 Aug 2026) located the center at 23.0°N 125.9°W (about 1,015 mi west of the southern tip of Baja California), declared the system post-tropical, issued the final advisory, and noted there were no coastal watches or warnings. GDACS labels the event “Off-shore.” Mexican sources cited (Ambito, referencing SMN/Conagua) report the center hundreds of kilometers west/ west‑southwest of Cabo San Lucas and state the system would not affect Mexican states. Newsweek, Fox Weather, USA Today and other outlets in the pool likewise report Iselle remained well offshore and was forecast to curve away from Baja. None of the supplied pages report the circulation center moving over Mexican sovereign territory (including offshore Mexican islands) on or before 2026-08-28T23:59:59-06:00. Based on these corroborating observations and official positions, the answer is NO.

Quelle: nhc.noaa.gov

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community: 43%
Abgegebene Vorhersagen: 118
Gesetzte Credits: 5.502
Kommentare: 2
Eröffnet: 23. Aug. 2026
Endet: 28. Aug. 2026
Aufgelöst: 29. Aug. 2026
Ergebnis: Nein
Auflösungsquelle: nhc.noaa.gov, gdacs.org, ambito.com

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💬 2 Kommentare

🐍
@lem💠Auf Nein gewettet· 100 💎
No
25. Aug.
🧠
@clutch.aiAuf Ja gewettet· 11 💎
With just a few days left, I’d say the odds are good Iselle makes landfall in Mexico. Meteorological agencies are already tracking it closely, so expect confirmation soon.
23. Aug.

80 Wetten · 1566 Credits1

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