
A galera estava 55% confiante, e acertou.
55%
Probabilidade final
Resolvido em 19 de ago.
Como os mercados resolvidos nesse dia terminaram: as probabilidades, o veredito e o que a galera acertou ou errou.

A galera estava 55% confiante, e acertou.
55%
Probabilidade final
Resolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 56% confiante, e acertou.
56%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: The supplied official SIL page shows a minute-by-minute record titled “Sesión de la Comisión Permanente del miércoles 19 de agosto de 2026” with timestamps and procedural actions occurring that day. Independent news reports (Sociedad Noticias and El Heraldo de México, both dated 19 Aug 2026 in the evidence) also report the Comisión Permanente holding a session on 19 August 2026. There are no conflicting sources in the provided material. Together these sources corroborate that the Comisión Permanente convened and held a formal session on 2026-08-19 (Mexico City local date).
Fonte: sil.gobernacion.gob.mxResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 86% confiante, e acertou.
86%
Probabilidade final
“Vou de SIM 🏆⚽. Harry Kane teve uma grande temporada com 36 gols na Bundesliga e ganhou a Chuteira de Ouro europeia. Então, acho que ele definitivamente receberá o troféu no dia 19 de agosto.”
Por quê: Multiple independent, credible sources report and show that Harry Kane was presented with the European Golden Shoe at a ceremony on 2026-08-19. FC Bayern’s official live blog and photo gallery explicitly state and illustrate that the trophy was presented to Kane (naming Luca Toni and Tobias Goldbrunner as presenters). Bundesliga.com, Ouest‑France (AFP) and Yahoo/associated photo coverage corroborate the same dated presentation with images and quotes. Under the corroboration rule (3+ independent outlets reporting the same dated outcome), the fact is established.
Fonte: bundesliga.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 60% confiante, e acertou.
60%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: The Washington VAAC (NOAA OSPO) lists Popocatépetl volcanic ash advisories issued on 2026-08-17 at 09:24 UTC and 14:51 UTC. These times fall within 16:00 UTC Aug 16 to 16:00 UTC Aug 17 (the 10:00 Aug 16–10:00 Aug 17 local CST window). CENAPRED’s daily technical page shows exhalations occurred during this period (26 on 17 Aug; 19 on 16 Aug) with zero explosions, so the ash detected was emitted by exhalations rather than explosions. Therefore, at least one exhalation with ash occurred in the specified period.
Fonte: ospo.noaa.govResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 81% confiante, e acertou.
19%
Probabilidade final
“Não, a tempestade tropical Cristóbal não vai tocar terra e já se dissipou no oceano aberto.”
Por quê: Multiple independent news reports of the storm and NHC advisories in the supplied evidence show Tropical Storm Cristóbal formed in the central/subtropical Atlantic in mid‑August 2026 but weakened and was discontinued/downgraded on 2026-08-13. Sources (EFE, Watchers.news, Fox8live, TCPalm, NYT interactive referenced) report the NHC forecast/determination that Cristóbal would dissipate or was no longer being tracked, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect and explicit statements that it had no impacts on land. Those contemporaneous reports document that Cristóbal’s centre did not cross any coastline; therefore, by 12:00 (UTC−04:00) on 2026-08-19 the storm had not made landfall.
Fonte: efe.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 85% confiante, e acertou.
15%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories show Cristóbal formed as a tropical storm on 12 August 2026 with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and was downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low on 13 August 2026 (NHC Post‑Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Advisory Number 5 reports maximum sustained winds 30 mph and states this is the final NHC advisory). The NHC archive contains no advisory recording winds at or above hurricane strength (≥74 mph) at any time. Independent news reports (EFE, CNN) corroborate the NHC timeline and intensities. Therefore, based on the supplied evidence, Cristóbal did not reach Saffir–Simpson Category 1 hurricane intensity at any time before 12:00 (UTC−4) on 19 August 2026.
Fonte: nhc.noaa.govResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 88% confiante, e acertou.
88%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Multiple independent contemporaneous sources reporting on Ted Lasso Season 4 Episode 3 (the streaming release on Aug 19, 2026) identify Tanya Reynolds as part of the episode's credited performers. Esquire's episode-3 recap names Alice (Tanya Reynolds) in the coaching trio; Decider's cast guide lists Tanya Reynolds as Coach Alice Chilton; NDTV's episode/cast article lists her among the new Season 4 cast and notes the Episode 3 release; and the Substack recap (Aug 19) includes a still captioned with Tanya Reynolds 'now streaming on Apple TV.' No supplied source contradicts this. Under the arbiter's corroboration rule (three or more independent credible outlets reporting the same concrete, dated outcome), these pages establish that Tanya Reynolds is listed among the credited performers for the first publicly released (streaming) version of S4E3.
Fonte: alisechaffins.substack.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 96% confiante, e acertou.
96%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Multiple independent entertainment outlets report that Ted Lasso S4E3 (“Richmond’s Got Talent”) was released to viewers around the 19 Aug 2026 window and was available to stream. RadioTimes (published 2026-08-19) explicitly states the episode is “available to stream now” and lists Episode 3 as Wednesday 19 August 2026 (out now). Independent recaps and coverage from Decider and Seat42F (published the same day) contain full episode recaps/spoilers, indicating the episode was playable by viewers on that date. Regional scheduling pieces (TechRadar/Yahoo, TVLine) and ReporteIndigo show the episode’s local release times falling on Aug 19 in several territories (and note the Americas sometimes receive episodes earlier on Aug 18), but the corroborated reporting above unambiguously establishes the episode was publicly released and playable in at least one territory on 2026-08-19.
Fonte: radiotimes.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 83% confiante, e acertou.
17%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: the first Nasdaq stock screener reading observed at or after 2026-08-19 15:00:00 UTC must list Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) in positions 1–5. Observed data: the Nasdaq screener reading as of 2026-08-19 16:00 UTC (the first reading at/after the target instant) lists TSM at rank #6 with market cap $2,136,540,759,115. The top five on that reading are #1 NVDA, #2 AAPL, #3 GOOGL, #4 MSFT, #5 AMZN. Comparison: TSM is ranked #6 (outside positions 1–5), so the condition is not met. Decisive observation date: 2026-08-19.
Fonte: nasdaq.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 54% confiante, e errou.
46%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: USA TODAY Best-selling Booklist edition dated Wednesday, August 19, 2026 (reflecting sales Aug 10–Aug 16, 2026) must list 'Theo of Golden' (author Levi, Allen) at numeric rank 1. Target: the Best-selling Booklist page for August 19, 2026. Observed value(s): the supplied USA TODAY page (August 19, 2026) shows the top entry as '1 Theo of Golden' by Levi, Allen (i.e. the title is listed at numeric rank 1). Comparison: observed rank = 1, which satisfies the market condition, so the correct resolution is YES.
Fonte: usatoday.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 66% confiante, e acertou.
34%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: 'Daggermouth' (Wolfe, H. M.) must have a strictly lower numeric rank (better rank; e.g., 1 is lower than 2) than 'Dungeon Crawler Carl' (Dinniman, Matt) on USA TODAY's Best-selling Booklist for August 19, 2026 (sales week Aug 10–Aug 16, 2026). Observations (from the supplied USA TODAY Aug 19, 2026 list): 'Dungeon Crawler Carl' (Dinniman, Matt) is listed at rank 2; 'Daggermouth' (Wolfe, H. M.) is listed at rank 13. Comparison: 13 is not lower than 2, so the required strictly-better (lower-number) rank for 'Daggermouth' is not met. Therefore the market resolves NO.
Fonte: usatoday.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 74% confiante, e acertou.
74%
Probabilidade final
“Com a SNCF, um trem na hora é tão raro quanto a Ferrari ser campeã do mundo de F1 este ano ou o OM ganhar a Ligue 1; continua sendo um sonho.”
Por quê: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day 2026-08-18 (2026-08-18T00:00:00+02:00 through 2026-08-18T23:59:59+02:00) must be >= 565 distinct SNCF trains whose latest reported delay during that interval was >= 5 minutes. Observations from supplied data: Clutch's finalized daily total for that local day = 648 trains (data: "Observed: 648 trains seen since local midnight whose latest reported delay was 5+ minutes"). The data states this covers the local calendar day ending at 2026-08-18 21:59 UTC (which corresponds to 2026-08-18T23:59:00+02:00) and was finalized by Clutch at 2026-08-18 22:00 UTC. Comparison: 648 >= 565, so the condition is met. Conclusion: YES.
Fonte: clutch.vipResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 57% confiante, e errou.
57%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: This market resolves YES only if Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26AUG17-9 is marked finalized with outcome YES; it resolves NO if that exact ticker is marked finalized with outcome NO. Target: the Kalshi-finalized outcome for the Netflix Global 'Shows | English' weekly chart published on 2026-08-18. Observed value(s) from supplied data: Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26AUG17-9 shows 'Official status: finalized' and 'Official finalized result: NO'. Comparison: the ticker is finalized with outcome NO, so per the market rule the Clutch market resolves NO.
Fonte: kalshi.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 52% confiante, e acertou.
52%
Probabilidade final
“Acho que vai chegar a 64.000$ mas não por muito.”
Por quê: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT spot price at 2026-08-19T10:00:00Z >= 64,000. Target instant: 2026-08-19T10:00:00Z. Observed value from supplied Binance data: 2026-08-19 10:00 UTC = 64427.07 USDT. Comparison: 64427.07 >= 64000 → TRUE. therefore outcome YES.
Fonte: binance.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 62% confiante, e errou.
38%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: the first public snapshot of Apple Music Mexico — Most Played observed at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00 must show the #1 entry with title exactly 'RIKI' and Neton Vega among the primary credited artist(s). Target instant/window: first public snapshot at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00. Observed value(s): the feed's current reading 'Observed ranking as of 2026-08-19 11:00 UTC' (the feed serves only its current reading, so this is the first reading at/after the target) lists #1: 'RIKI' — Neton Vega. Comparison: the title exactly matches 'RIKI' and Neton Vega is the credited primary artist for the #1 entry, meeting the market's title-and-artist criteria. Therefore the market resolves YES.
Fonte: rss.marketingtools.apple.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 64% confiante, e errou.
36%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: the first Apple Music Spain 'Most Played' feed reading observed at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00 must list the track titled 'LA GRACIOSA' by Quevedo & Elvis Crespo at overall position #1 (if ties at #1, artist field must contain both 'Quevedo' and 'Elvis Crespo'). Target instant/window: at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00. Observed data used: Apple Music Spain Most Played reading observed at 2026-08-19 11:00 UTC (the feed serves only its current reading, and this observation is the authoritative reading at/after the target). Observed #1 entry: "LA GRACIOSA" — Quevedo & Elvis Crespo. Title matches (case/diacritics/whitespace-insensitive) and artist field contains both 'Quevedo' and 'Elvis Crespo'. Comparison: condition satisfied, so the market resolves YES.
Fonte: rss.marketingtools.apple.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 56% confiante, e errou.
44%
Probabilidade final
“O barril acabou de ultrapassar os 89 dólares esta manhã (11 de agosto), e está atualmente em forte alta. É bem provável que permaneça nesse mesmo nível em 3 dias.”
Por quê: Extracted condition: FRED series DCOILBRENTEU closing price for calendar date 2026-08-14 >= $89.00 USD/bbl. The rule states if FRED has no data for 2026-08-14, use the most recent prior business day's FRED value. Supplied FRED data has no entry for 2026-08-14; the most recent prior business-day entry is 2026-08-11 with value 93.26 USD/bbl. Comparison: 93.26 >= 89.00 → TRUE. Therefore the market resolves YES.
Fonte: fred.stlouisfed.orgResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 64% confiante, e errou.
36%
Probabilidade final
Por quê: Extracted condition: The market resolves YES if the first non-empty Apple Music France "Most Played" feed reading observed at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00 lists #1 with title exactly 'Maladie' (case-insensitive, trim) and artist credit including the text 'Mauvais Djo'. Target instant/window: first feed reading at or after 2026-08-19T10:00:00+00:00. Observed authoritative reading from supplied data: feed observed at 2026-08-19 11:00 UTC (the first reading at/after the target) lists #1: title "Maladie" — artist "Mauvais Djo". Comparison: title matches exactly "Maladie" ignoring case/whitespace; artist credit includes the text "Mauvais Djo". Therefore the condition is satisfied and the correct resolution is YES.
Fonte: rss.marketingtools.apple.comResolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 71% confiante, e acertou.
29%
Probabilidade final
Resolvido em 19 de ago.

A galera estava 82% confiante, e acertou.
82%
Probabilidade final
Resolvido em 19 de ago.
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