Will volcanic ash from Popocatépetl fall in Mexico City or Estado de México?

🤖 Context

YES if, by 2:00 PM on August 12, 2026 (local time), one or more of the following publish an explicit confirmation that volcanic ash from Popocatépetl has fallen or been deposited in any part of Mexico City or Estado de México. The confirming sources are: (a) the SMN 'Aviso Especial por la actividad del Volcán Popocatépetl' issued at or before that time, (b) an official CENAPRED bulletin or report on its website, (c) an official press release or statement on the official website of the Secretaría/Protección Civil of Mexico City or of Estado de México, or (d) at least two independent Mexican mainstream news outlets publish reports explicitly stating ash fall was confirmed in those areas and citing an official agency, preferably CENAPRED or SMN. Reports that only claim 'possible' ash, social-media-only photos without official corroboration, or statements limited to areas outside Mexico City/Estado de México do not count. An explicit official statement saying there was no ash fall in those areas resolves this market NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

38%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

250

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 12, 2026

Closes

Aug 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 12, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 38% and NO 62%, based on 7 predictions and 250 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will volcanic ash from Popocatépetl fall in Mexico City or Estado de México?” real-money betting?

No. “Will volcanic ash from Popocatépetl fall in Mexico City or Estado de México?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.