Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima emit ash in any exhalation?

🤖 Context

YES if one or more publicly available sources explicitly report that Volcán de Fuego de Colima produced at least one exhalation containing volcanic ash (explicitly described as 'ceniza', 'ash' or tephra, or detected as an ash plume in satellite ash products) at any time between 9:00 PM on August 10, 2026 and 9:00 AM on August 11, 2026, Mexico City local time. Prefer CENAPRED and Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN/CONAGUA). Adjudicators may also accept NOAA/GOES satellite products or corroborating reports from at least two independent national or international news organizations. Uncorroborated social-media posts, reports that mention only steam/gas, or reports that place any ash outside the specified interval do not count and the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 39%, based on 13 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

39%

Predictions made

13

Credits staked

222

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 10, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 11, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 39% and NO 61%, based on 13 predictions and 222 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima emit ash in any exhalation?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima emit ash in any exhalation?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.