Will a tropical cyclone in the Eastern North Pacific be named 'Norbert'?

45%
-15% last 24h

38%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Avio, ESA, the European Commission's Copernicus programme (preferably) or multiple independent news outlets report that both Sentinel‑3C and FLEX reached and were confirmed in the planned sun‑synchronous orbit (approximately 820 km altitude, 98.6° inclination) following the Vega‑C VV30 launch during the 14–15 September 2026 launch window. Otherwise NO. If the launch does not occur during that window (no liftoff), or if only one satellite reaches the planned orbit or one is declared lost, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 49 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that there are only a few days left and both satellites need to reach orbit in this tight window, I'm skeptical. Recent developments aren't promising, so I wouldn't bet on it.

45%
-15% last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h

30%
Stable · last 24h

71%
Stable · last 24h

86%
Stable · last 24h

49%
+8% last 24h
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