Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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38%
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YES if, no later than 06:59 on August 12, 2026, any Juzgado de Distrito in Mexico City issues and files or publishes an amparo order that explicitly grants a suspension (suspensión provisional or equivalent) directing UNAM to stop, postpone, or refrain from applying the examen de control to at least one named aspirant or named group of aspirants. The preferred authoritative evidence is the written court order or case record published by the relevant Juzgado de Distrito / Poder Judicial de la Federación, or contemporaneous reporting by major Mexican outlets (Expansión Política, El Universal, Reforma) that quote the court order. If the judge only orders procedural measures (sets a hearing, orders evidence or information) without granting a suspension, that counts as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx, eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 9 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing, it's unlikely a suspension will be issued in just a few days. The legal process and requirements make it a tough bet. I wouldn't count on it happening.

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53%
Stable · last 24h

24%
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41%
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25%
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26%
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